Aam Aadmi Party's landslide victory in Delhi Elections will impact Punjab 2017 elections, the latest snap polls conducted by Cvoter predict.
"The idea of AAP is getting stronger in Punjab. They may not have a face that can lead them, because Kejriwal is not a candidate in Punjab. But if the elections were held today, AAP could sweep Punjab," said Yashwant Deshmuk, Managing Director and Editor of Cvoter Foundation, on Talking Data, an #IndiaHangOut series on Boom.
The doyen of Akali politics, Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, is no longer in perceived control of his government, with reins being firmly in the hands of his son Deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal and his controversial brother-in-law, Minister Bikramjit Singh Majithia. Punjab's BJP is in a state of inertia triggered by a central leadership that listens to the Akalis more than their own state leaders. Congress is yet to recover from its shock defeat of 2012 assembly polls and even though the showing has been average in Lok Sabha polls, it is nevertheless fancying its chances in 2017 polls. Under these circumstances the Aam Aadmi Party, that won 4 Lok Sabha seats in previous general elections, is emerging as the proverbial dark horse in the state's polity.
Although the assembly polls in the state may be due in January 2017, the political structures of the future are beginning to crystallize in Punjab right now. In order to gauge the prevailing winds of change, Cvoter conducted a snap poll across the state with a randomly selected sample of 1047 respondents.
When asked to name the issues afflicting them, the respondents chose a troika of issues with corruption as the leading issue chosen by 23.6 per cent respondents. A close second was alcoholism/drug abuse at 22.8 per cent and unemployment at 17.3 per cent was third most important issue. While corruption as a concern is largely in consonance with the national mood on the topic and also the ill governance associated with dynastic parties, the latter two issue are deeply intertwined and unique to Punjab.
A higher per capital income base and overall robust agriculture sector made the Punjabi youth aspire for a higher standard of living. Owing to progressive de-industrialization and emigration of businesses, worthwhile job opportunities shrank within the state. However, due to NRI economy and well-oiled state support for agriculture, a lot of young people ended up with cash in hand but no work to do. This resulted in a state wide black trade network aided from other side of Wagah that is eating hollow the famed youth of Punjab. A spectre that has troubled and anguished the civil society in the recent years.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) campaign capitalized on this spectre haunting Granary of India to win 4 Lok Sabha seats in General Elections 2014. With a sharp focus on drugs abuse, AAP was able to emerge from no where and win the seats on the basis of a leadership that was sourced from Manpreet Badal Punjab People's Party and ex-Left leaders, who till then were a house divided in Punjab.
Therefore, it is no surprise that 89 per cent of the respondents assert that AAP's victory in Delhi election will affect Punjab polls. A full 61 per cent back AAP's decision to not contest the ongoing Punjab Municipal polls. Another 88 per cent believe that AAP would benefit from SAD-BJP alliance infighting. Commenting on the Dera factor, 39 per cent believed that Dera Sacha Sauda trending the BJP way can impact polls, 55 per cent think otherwise.
"If BJP continues with the Akali party in Punjab, they are going to head for a disaster. If they wish to sustain and manage their relevance in Punjab, BJP will have to call off this alliance," said Deshmukh.
The responses to the questions on Chief Ministers, past and present, make for an interesting analysis. When asked to name the best Chief Minister in past 20 years, 40 per cent backed Amritsar MP Captain Amrinder Singh. 20.3 per cent named Beant Singh while 19% chose CM Parkash Singh Badal. Ironically, two of the top 3 names in the CM sweepstakes are from INC despite them being in power for only 7 out of the last 20 years.
Despite the high approval ratings for his past term (2002-2007), Captain Amrinder Singh has some cause of concern currently. When asked to name the best candidate for the post of Chief Minister of Punjab, only 27 per cent of respondents favour Captain Amrinder Singh and 26 per cent favour Bhagwant Mann, MP of AAP. Navjot Sidhu of the BJP is at distant 14 per cent approval while current Dy CM Sukhbir Badal got a mere 2 per cent approval rating. Hence, we can conclude that, as of now, in terms of leadership stakes, the battle is between AAP and INC with BJP coming in third. SAD is falling by the wayside.
When the respondents were asked to name the winner of the next elections irrespective of their loyalties, 56 per cent respondents backed AAP to win the assembly elections in 2017. Of the respondents, a mere 9 per cent backed Congress to win in 2017. BJP and Sad only received 8 and 5 per cent of the votes respectively. AAP clearly is the front-runner in terms of voter perception.
Punjab was one of the earliest states in immediate post-indolence era to dislodge an INC state government and it could repeat the trend by being the first major state where AAP could score a victory and outflank the twin poles of current Punjabi polity.