The inaugural ICC World Test Championship (WTC) has reached its business end with three teams vying for a place in the final to be played at the Home of Cricket, Lord's.
India, England and Australia are in contention to join New Zealand in the final to be held from June 18 to 22, 2021. To make things exciting, India are hosting England in a four-match series with England having won the first Test at Chennai.
With three Tests to go, here's all you need to know about the race to Lord's and how India can qualify for the final.
How does the points system work?
Nine Test-playing nations are a part of the inaugural WTC - Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and West Indies.
The ICC employs a slightly complex points system for the WTC. However, the COVID-19 pandemic forced the ICC to further tweak the points system to ensure fairness.
Unlike other sporting leagues around the world, teams do not play all of the other teams in the league. This means, they won't play the same number of matches.
Instead, each team will only play six of the other eight teams in Test series - three at home and three away from home - over a two-year period.
Each series has 120 points at stake. These 120 points will be equally divided between the number of matches scheduled in the series. This has been done to ensure teams like Bangladesh and West Indies who play in smaller series are not at a disadvantage.
Depending on the number of matches in a series, a win will fetch a team maximum points. In case of a tie, where scores are equal at the end of play with the last batting team being all-out, both teams will split the maximum points between them.
In case of a draw, where one or both the teams have not completed their innings by the scheduled end of play, each team will be awarded one-third of the maximum points on offer.
Here's how the points system works
| Matches in Series | Points for a win | Points for a tie | Points for a draw | Points for a loss |
| 2 | 60 | 30 | 20 | 0 |
| 3 | 40 | 20 | 13 | 0 |
| 4 | 30 | 15 | 10 | 0 |
| 5 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on WTC
The COVID-19 pandemic forced a number of Test series to be cancelled. The ICC's cricket committee met in November 2020 and decided to employ a percentage of points earned system to decide the league rankings.
In this system, the league table will be decided on the basis of percentage of points won in the matches played so far. This would ensure teams who have had series cancelled would still have a fair chance of making it to the Lord's final.
In this methodology, teams will be ranked on the basis of percentage of points won out of the total points contested.
Consider a hypothetical scenario where India have played four Test series compared to the West Indies' two. In the four series worth 480 points, India have won 360 points whereas the West Indies have only 200 points out of a possible 240.
In the original system, India would have been ranked higher than the West Indies. However, in the new system, West Indies with a PCT of 83.33% will rank higher than India who have a PCT of 75%.
As of February 12, 2021, only India and England have played or are playing all six of their scheduled Test series. New Zealand have played five series while Australia, South Africa, West Indies and Sri Lanka have played four. Bangladesh's tour of Pakistan had to be postponed after the first Test due to the pandemic. In the WTC league, Pakistan have played 5.5 series while Bangladesh have only managed to play 2.5 series.
Latest WTC rankings
Seven Test series were scheduled to be held in 2021 - Sri Lanka vs England, Pakistan vs South Africa, Bangladesh vs West Indies, India vs England, West Indies vs Sri Lanka, South Africa vs Australia and Sri Lanka vs Bangladesh. Of these, the first four series have gone ahead whereas there is uncertainty surrounding West Indies vs Sri Lanka series and the Sri Lanka vs Bangladesh series.
On February 2, Australia announced that they would be postponing their March tour of South Africa citing the pandemic.
Going into the India vs England and Bangladesh vs West Indies series, only England, India, Australia and New Zealand were in contention to finish in the top two. New Zealand became the first team to qualify for the WTC final after Australia's withdrawal from the South Africa tour.
England currently lead the rankings with 442 points and a PCT of 70.2% followed by New Zealand (420 points and 70%), Australia (332 points and 69.2%) and India (430 points and 68.3%).
Here's how the table looks like before the second Test between India and England.
Who Can Make It To The Final?
While India and England's fate rests in their own hands, Australia's chances of making it to the final depends entirely on the result of the India vs England series. Since the India vs England series will have four Tests, a win is worth 30 points, a tie is worth 15 and a draw is worth 10 points. Since a tie is an unlikely outcome, we will be discounting it save in the event of a 2-0 England win.
India
Having lost the first Test in Chennai, India cannot afford to lose any of the remaining three matches and have to win at least two matches. Should any of the below scenarios play out, Virat Kohli's men will qualify for the final.
A 3-1 series win would take India to 520 points for a PCT of 72.2%. A 2-1 series win would fetch India 500 points for a PCT of 69.4%.
In a 3-1 win to India scenario, England would have 442 points for a PCT of 61.3%. In case of a 2-1 India win, England would end up with a maximum of 457 points for a PCT of 63.4%
In both these scenarios, Australia would finish third with 332 points for a PCT of 69.2%.
England
Even though they won the first Test, England still have a task at hand to make it to the Lord's final. They have to win at least two of the remaining three matches to ensure qualification. Should any of the below scenarios play out, England will qualify for the final.
A 3-1 series win will take England to 502 points for a PCT of 69.7% while a 4-0 whitewash would see them finish with 532 points for a PCT of 73.8%.
A 3-0 England win would fetch England 512 points for a PCT of 71.1%.
Now here's where things get a bit complicated. In the rare-case scenario of England tying two Tests and winning another for a 2-0 series win, Joe Root's men will just edge past Australia in the table. In this case, England will end up with 502 points for a PCT of 69.7%, only .5% higher than Australia. However, since there have been only two tied Tests in the history of men's cricket, the chances of this scenario playing out is highly unlikely.
Should any of the above scenarios play out, Australia won't qualify for the final as their PCT will be lower than England's.
Australia
Since Australia will not be playing a Test series before the final, they finish the 2019-21 World Test Championship with 332 points and a PCT of 69.2%. Should any of the following scenarios play out, Australia will make it to the final at India and England's expense.
Statistically speaking, Australia have good odds of qualifying for the final. A drawn series or a 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 series win to England will help the Aussies clinch a spot in the final.
Should the series end 1-1 or 2-2, India will end up with a maximum of 490 points for a PCT of 68.05% while England will finish with a maximum of 472 points for a PCT of 65.5%.
Should the series end in a 1-0 or 2-1 England win, the maximum points England would finish with would be 487 with a PCT 67.6% whereas India would finish with a maximum tally of 475 points for a PCT of 65.9%.
In case of a 2-0 England win with just one tied Test, the maximum points England would finish with would be 497 for a PCT of 69.02%. India, on the other hand, would finish with a maximum of 460 points for a PCT 63.8%.