The delimitation exercise in India, which involves redrawing electoral boundaries and adjusting the number of parliamentary and state assembly seats based on population data, has become a contentious issue, particularly between the northern and southern states.
Southern states are protesting against potential seat losses due to population shifts which they fear will lead to loss of political influence. Political leaders in these states argue that the process may unfairly benefit northern states at the expense of those that have successfully managed population control programs.
Here are five questions and answers explaining the delimitation exercise and the reasons behind the protests from southern states.
What is Delimitation?
Delimitation is the process which outlines boundaries and fixes the number of seats for territorial constituencies in each state for the Lok Sabha and Legislative assemblies. This is a significant exercise aimed at ensuring equal representation and preserving the ‘one person, one vote, one value’ mandate as envisioned in Article 81 of the Indian Constitution.
The delimitation exercise also determines seats that need to be reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) in LS and legislative assemblies. Ideally the exercise if undertaken after every Census to account for the population growth and fair representation in the parliament. This ensures that densely populated regions are not underrepresented, while sparsely ones are not overrepresented.
This process is carried out by the ‘Delimitation Commission’ which is set up by a law passed by the parliament. According to the Election Commission’s website, “The Delimitation Commission in India is a high-power body whose orders have the force of law and cannot be called in question before any court.”
The orders of this commission will come into force on a date specified by the President of India on its behalf, and though the order copies are laid before the House and the concerned State Legislative Assemblies, they are deemed to be final and “no modifications are permissible”.
Why are the southern states worried?
The Southern states, led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, raised concerns over the loss of alleged political influence because of successful population control measures.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, the Centre’s ally, also echoed similar concerns as he encouraged his people to make more babies despite Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s assurances that the South will not lose “even a single seat” in the upcoming delimitation exercise.
Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah said Shah’s remarks on delimitations were “not trustworthy” going as far as to say that the Centre was using the process to “silence” the south.
How does the population growth impact delimitation?
The country’s population explosion in the past few decades has been uneven with states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan increasing in number in comparison with states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh which have seen population control measures. According to political scientist Alistair McMillan, this has led to a drastic over- and underrepresentation of people-MP ratio.
Political leaders of southern states thus argue that the delimitation process will unfairly benefit the northern states at the expense of those states who successfully implemented population control measures.
A 2019 study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests that Lok Sabha seats, using 2026 population projections, needs to increase to 846 seats to ensure fair demographic balances. According to the projections, Uttar Pradesh stands to gain 143 seats – up from its current 80; and Bihar’s representation nearly doubles from 40 seats to 79.
The southern states see a less dramatic increase but would see a dip in the overall share in the Lok Sabha from 23% to 19%.
When is the next Delimitation exercise?
Delimitation relies on Census data. The government notified its intent to conduct the 2021 Census in a 2019 gazette notification. However, it was forced to postpone the exercise – for the first time ever since its independence – because of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Delimitation of Lok Sabha seats was successfully implemented four times based on the censuses of 1951(494 seats), 1961(522), 1971(543) and 2001(543). Though the last delimitation exercise in 2002 redrew constituency boundaries based on the 2001 Census, Lok Sabha seats, allocation of each state, and the number of seats in state Assemblies have stayed unchanged since the 1972 delimitation.
In 1971, the Indira Gandhi-led government froze the number of Lok Sabha seats till 2000 to encourage population-control measures. The Atal Bihari Vajpayee-government in 2002, extended the same till 2026.
The 2021 Census, which was delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to begin this year, and will be followed by the delimitation of constituencies. The Constitution (Eighty-Fourth Amendment) Act, 2002 froze existing constituency boundaries until “the first Census taken after the year 2026”.
Citing concerns over inequitable representation, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin wants an extension of this freeze for another 30 years. “It is entirely unjust to reduce the parliamentary representation of Tamil Nadu and the southern states solely because they have effectively implemented population control measures in the interest of the nation,” a six-point resolution jointly passed by all political parties of Tamil Nadu on March 6 read.
What are the Southern States proposing to do?
To counter the political imbalance and tip the proverbial (population) scales, leaders of the south are exhorting their people to make more babies. “I will not tell you to not have children hastily, have children immediately,” Stalin said at a wedding function of a DMK functionary.
At a mass wedding function, Stalin said in older times, elders would bless newly-weds to acquire 16 forms of wealth, but perhaps, the time has now come to have 16 children instead.
AP Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu, even announced his administration’s plans to propose a new law that aims to promote those individuals with two or more children to contest local body elections. Naidu also urged families to have more children over concerns about the state's ageing population and its impact on demographic balance.