Two days before the 2025 Delhi assembly polls, a study was released by the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and widely reported by news organisations, highlighting the impact of "illegal immigration" to Delhi, particularly by Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants.
In November 2024, just a day before the Maharashtra assembly elections, Tata Institute Of Social Sciences (TISS) released a starkly similar study on the impact of "illegal immigration" to Mumbai, by Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants.
Both studies came to the same conclusion - that undocumented Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants have changed the demographics of these cities, and increased the share of Muslim population, while driving up crime, increasing job competition and draining resources.
BOOM analysed the two studies and found significant flaws in both. The language used was highly biased, selection bias was evident in the primary data collection, and numerous inaccuracies and logical fallacies were present in the methodologies and conclusions. Furthermore, large portions of the TISS report were repeated verbatim in the JNU study, raising serious concerns about academic integrity.
No Experts In Migration Studies Involved
The JNU study, titled "Illegal Immigrants to Delhi: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences", was led by Manuradha Chaudhary, Professor at Centre of Russian Studies, and Preeti Das, Professor at Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies.
Click here to view the full report by JNU professors.
The TISS study, titled, "Illegal Immigrants to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences", was led by Shankar Das, Dean, School of Health Systems Studies, and Chairperson-Centre for Excellence in Corporate Social Responsibility (CECSR), along with Souvik Mondal, Assistant Professor, Centre for Public Health.
Click here to view the full interim report by TISS professors.
BOOM’s review of their academic work revealed that none of these researchers had prior experience in migration studies, nor did they consult migration experts for their reports.
Flaws And Biases In Methodology
The methodology of both studies was deeply flawed.
The TISS study was based on a survey of 300 people in migrant-dense areas of Mumbai, while the JNU study was based on survey data of 400 participants. However, neither of the studies provided a list of survey questions.
BOOM consulted with political anthropologist Adil Hossain, who informed us that the lack of such information on the methodology is highly irregular for academic papers.
Independent researcher and former JNU scholar N Sai Balaji told BOOM that studies also fail to produce any evidence, literature or data to justify the process of selection of areas for the study. "How were the areas chosen? Based on what data or report did they assume that these are the hotspots of undocumented migrants?" Balaji asked of the report, while speaking to BOOM.
We further observed that while the researchers carried out surveys of undocumented migrants, the utilise these observations to make generalised statements for the entire population of the respective cities.
Balaji also pointed at that the study fails to provide clear evidence of the respondents being Bangladeshi or Rohingya. "They mention a dialect study, but fail to mention the involvement of any trained linguistic expert in Bangla to carry out such a study, and a clear description of the methodology used to do so," he adds.
Both reports also heavily relied on qualitative inputs from ten Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), which included government officials, community leaders, brokers and contractors. The inputs from KIIs were used to make sweeping statements on the criminality of undocumented migrants, and their adverse impact on wages and public resources.
Hossain pointed out that the selection of interviewees appeared biased, with no inclusion of civil society members or NGOs that could offer counter-views. As a result, the observations of the study based on these inputs show heavily biased language with strong right-leaning political inclinations.
Balaji further added that the term "brokers" was vaguely defined, adding to the lack of clarity in the reports. He further mentions that the studies have provided no inputs from the Home Ministry, nor have they provided any official data on undocumented migrants in India.
Additionally, the studies also mention focus group discussions with various stakeholders in making its observations. However, there are no details provided on the questions asked in the KIIs, and the points of discussions during the focus groups - which are both highly irregular of academic work.
Conclusion On Demographics Change Unsubstantiated
The recent study by JNU starts with its 'executive findings' with the statement, "Illegal immigration to Delhi has significantly altered the city’s demographic landscape, with a large influx of migrants from neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar." This is repeated many times in the report.
Similarly, page 93 of the TISS study on Mumbai mentions, "The population of Hindus have been decreasing over the years whereas the population of Muslims have been on the rise. One of the main reasons attributing to this increase is the illegal Muslim migrants from Bangladesh."
Both the studies make the same observation - that the share of Muslim population in these cities have been significantly altered by the influx of migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar. However, after a series of consecutive readings of both the studies, BOOM found absolutely no evidence to support these observations.
The TISS study predicts that Mumbai's Hindu population will drop to 54% by 2051, a figure that was cited by BJP leaders during the Maharashtra elections to gain support. However, the entire study not only fails to provide any details at how such a prediction was made, but also provided contradicting figures.
In page 58 of the TISS study, it shows a 'prediction model' to highlight that the Hindu population of Mumbai is projected to be 60% in 2051, contradicting itself. No explanation is given for these discrepancies.
How do the studies make such a conclusion?
The studies rely on secondary Census data from 1951 to 2021 to demonstrate an increase in the Muslim population. They then highlight primary data from surveys to show that 95 per cent of the respondents in Delhi, and 96.3 per cent of the respondents in Mumbai are Muslim. The studies then link the two data to suggest that since most of the migrants they interviewed were Muslims, it must be a significant contributor to the rise of Muslim populations in the two cities.
However, there are logical flaws in this conclusion due to survey data from 300 and 400 respondents, respectively, in areas in Mumbai and Delhi with high density of foreign Muslim migrants being used to generalise the entire Muslim population of the city.
The studies fail to consider the natural birth rate among pre-existing Muslim populations, and the migration of Muslims from other Indian states in contributing to the growth of Muslim populations in the two cities.
Furthermore, the TISS study provides no explanation to its prediction analysis on the shrinking share of the Hindu population in Mumbai, and no further data to back up its observations.
Consistent use of biased language/opinions
Both studies are riddled with heavily biased language, especially in its observations from KIIs. Given the selection bias in choosing interviewees (details of which have not been provided), observations from these interviews were presented through heavily biased and non-neutral language (for example the consistent use of illegal to describe immigrants instead of the more neutral undocumented), and lacking any counter-views to the narrative presented.
Additionally, BOOM found that in the TISS report, the authors have added their own biased opinions, without any evidence to back up such claims. An example can be found in the excerpt below, taken from page 96 of the TISS report, which reads like an opinion piece:
"This issue is not only a societal problem but also a direct threat to India's good culture and social values. These illegal activities erode the moral fabric of our society, undermining values such as respect, integrity, and the well-being of individuals. The spread of such activities damages the principles of justice, fairness, and safety that are foundational to our culture. It poses a serious challenge to India's social structure, as it weakens the cultural values that have long been a source of national pride. The very fabric of our society—based on social harmony, mutual respect, and community building—suffers when such illegal activities proliferate."
- excerpt from the TISS report, page 95
The TISS report starts every chapter with a quote from a conservative author, some of whom face allegations of racism and xenophobia, showing clear signs of the study taking a heavily biased conservative stance. The study also cites sources such as OpIndia, a right-leaning portal that has been fact-checked multiple times for spreading misinformation and Islamophobia.
Two Identical Reports, Released Right Before Elections
Apart from having the exact same titles (albeit with different names of cities), both the reports use the exact same methodology to carry out their studies. BOOM found that the entire sections describing the qualitative survey, along with the sections titled "Identifying the Target Population, Strategies and Indicators", "Dialect Method" and "Sample Size" were copied verbatim by the JNU study from the TISS report.
Despite this, the JNU report does not acknowledge the TISS study or its findings. Furthermore, TISS researcher Souvik Mondal, who worked on the Mumbai study, is also credited in the JNU report as a contributor, suggesting direct coordination between the two reports.
Beyond the structural similarities, another commonality among the two reports is their release dates being just a day or two ahead of assembly elections in their respective states. While the TISS report was used by BJP leaders in campaigning in Mumbai, the JNU report was also cited by BJP leaders just a day ahead of the Delhi assembly polls to target the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP government.
Our analysis of the studies shows clear signs of a misleading narrative being pushed through two misleading studies - one replicated from the other - and released a day before elections in their respective states where the study is based. The narrative was used as campaign material by the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Both studies exhibit rampant use of biased language, flawed methodologies, contradicting information, and a complete lack of academic oversight.
BOOM reached out to researchers involved in both the studies over WhatsApp, phone calls and emails, but received no response. The article will be updated if and when we receive a response.