Speaking at a political rally in Uttar Pradesh on October 31, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi claimed that there are five crore unemployed youth in the state. On examining the claim, we found that the number is exaggerated and not supported by publicly available data on employment.
Data provided by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy - an independent think tank which publishes monthly data bulletins on employment in India - show that from May to August this year, there were 31.96 lakh (or 3.196 million) unemployed, who were willing to work and looking out for a job.
Additionally, there were 23.66 lakh (2.366 million) people who were unemployed, willing to work but not looking for a job.
Both combined (that's regardless of job seeking status) the figure is 55.62 lakh (5.562 million), which is far less than the 5 crore unemployed youth claim made by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra at the rally.
In fact, the data show that the entire available workforce in the state, and not the number of unemployed persons in Uttar Pradesh, is nearly six crore.
Her statement is made at the 1:10:17 mark in the video below, at her rally in Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh. The state is scheduled to have elections to its legislative assembly in February next year.
| Original (Hindi) | Translated to English |
आज का युवा बेरोज़गार है उत्तर प्रदेश में ही 5 करोड़ बेरोज़गार युवा हैं | Today's youth is unemployed In Uttar Pradesh alone, there are 5 crore unemployed youth |
How is the calculation of unemployment done?
The first way CMIE calculates the unemployment rate is by considering those who are unemployed, are willing to work, and are currently looking out for a job as a ratio of the labour force. The number of such people in Uttar Pradesh from May to August this year was 31.96 lakh (or 3.196 million).
These 31.96 lakh people form Uttar Pradesh's unemployment rate of 5.41% for the period May to August 2021.
The total labour force in this period for Uttar Pradesh was 5.907 crores. CMIE defines the labour force as the sum of those who are currently employed and those who are not employed but are willing to work and are looking out for a job. Out of a population aged 15 years or more of nearly 16.9 crores (or 169 million), a labour force of nearly 5.9 crore people means that Uttar Pradesh has a labour force that is 34.91% of its population.
Further, CMIE also calculates a metric called 'greater unemployment' which considers those who are currently unemployed, who are willing to work but are not currently looking out for a job (which for Uttar Pradesh was 23.66 lakh or 2.366 million), as well as those currently unemployed, are willing to work, and are currently looking out for a job (which is mentioned above).
This also means that the labour force increases (which is called the 'greater labour force', at 6.14 crores) and a 'greater unemployment rate' at 9.05%.
Therefore, the total unemployed, who are willing to work, regardless of them seeking a job is 5.562 million (or 55.62 lakh).
For the period January to April 2021, the same figure was 5.67 million ( or 56.7 lakh). The breakup can be found below.
This data is based on CMIE's Consumer Pyramid Surveys. The survey on the basis of which data from May to August was shown included 1,78,677 households consisting of 5,22,000 members aged 15 or above. A stratified multi-stage survey design was used to draw this sample. CMIE also uses data from the Census in 2011.
For the month of October 2021, Uttar Pradesh's unemployment rate is 4.2%. This can be seen here.
These documents outlining the unemployment in Uttar Pradesh from CMIE can be found here.
The government, through the National Statistical Office, also publishes the Periodic Labour Force Survey. Pertaining to the period July to September 2020, Uttar Pradesh had a labour force participation rate of 33.3%, and an unemployment rate of 13.4%. The survey does not give the absolute number of unemployed persons. The population projection for 2021 for Uttar Pradesh is 23.17 crores, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
The data given by the National Statistics Office be seen here.
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