WMO Warns of High Likelihood to Exceed Paris Agreement's 1.5°C Goal Within Next Five Years

The Geneva-based World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update has warned that there is an 80% chance the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be exceeded in at least one of the next five years.

There is also an 86% chance that at least one of these years will break the current temperature record set by 2023, the warmest year to date.

The Paris Agreement aims to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, limiting the temperature rise this century to 2°C, with efforts to further limit it to 1.5°C, to mitigate adverse impacts and related losses.

However, the WMO's projection serves as a stark warning that we are approaching the long-term temperature goals set in the Paris Agreement, which considers changes over decades, not just one to five years.

The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, according to the WMO report.

Further, the chance (80%) of at least one of the next five years exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when such a chance was close to zero.